立即打開
英國正全力投入風電,可是風突然停了!

英國正全力投入風電,可是風突然停了!

Sophie Mellor 2021年09月23日
就在歐洲最需要能源的時候,北海的風停了,這迫使地區能源市場爭奪天然氣儲備,為家庭供暖和企業供電。

位于北海(North Sea)的海上風電場呈指數級增長,證明了歐洲國家共同努力在電網脫碳方面投入時間、精力和資金。

就在歐洲最需要能源的時候,北海的風停了,這迫使地區能源市場爭奪天然氣儲備,為家庭供暖和企業供電。

它造成的后果很昂貴。

能源轉型帶來的意外后果變成了電費飆升。可再生資源成本低且屬于無碳排放,歐洲能源市場對其依賴程度日益增高,然而這顯然不可靠,比如風如果停了怎么辦。

臨近冬季之際,隨著該地區從新冠疫情中走出,需要更多的能源來推動經濟復蘇,歐洲國家逐漸擱置了限制碳排放的配額,并且重新考慮燃煤電廠,以填補風能缺失造成的缺口。

如果說轉向碳排放能源還不夠苦澀,整個歐洲大陸的天然氣供應就更是陷入了地緣政治糾葛。俄羅斯不斷增加儲量,或許是為了提升歐洲對“北溪-2”(Nord Stream 2)天然氣管道的興趣,而且中國、日本和韓國對液化天然氣(LNG)的出價超過歐洲,來自俄羅斯的供應已經下降。

“可再生能源發電強勁增長顯然會影響電價和電力結構。”能源研究公司Rystad energy的天然氣和電力市場負責人卡洛斯·托雷斯·迪亞茲表示。

一片平靜

英國面臨的情況尤為嚴重,目前該國的能源總量中,風能僅占7%,與2020年風能平均占發電總量25%相比急劇下降。

英國的海上風電領域是能源轉換的成功案例,過去十年里輸出了24GW風力發電,足夠大幅削減排放量,而且可以為720萬個家庭供電。但隨著風力放緩,碳信用額度價格升至創紀錄高位,電力市場經歷了極端動蕩。

“我們提高可再生能源普及率的目標非常高,隨之而來的日益嚴重的問題是價格波動。”Wood Mackenzie公司的海上風電分析師芬利·克拉克說。

因此,燃氣和燃煤發電廠均已重新啟用,以填補空白。現在,天然氣發電占了英國發電量的一半以上,然而英國海上風力由補貼覆蓋,邊際成本接近零,但天然氣并不是。

就連碳排放量最大的能源煤炭,也已經重返舞臺。經歷兩個月創紀錄的無煤期后,現在英國能源結構中煤電僅占3%。面對上周的電力短缺,電力市場運營商國家電網(National Grid)要求法國電力集團(EDF)重啟位于諾丁漢郡的西伯頓A(West Burton A)煤電站。但英國關閉所有燃煤電廠的最后期限是2024年,未來可能無法如此選擇。

電價高企令人震驚

平靜無風再加上全球爭奪天然氣供應,導致了電力價格的飛漲。在過去一年里,歐洲的天然氣價格上漲了500%以上,創造了新的每日紀錄,而上漲幾乎不可避免地會轉嫁到消費者的身上。

英國9月的電價翻了一番,是一年前的七倍。9月14日,第二天的電力調度價格為每兆瓦時424.61英鎊(588美元),是2020年9月平均價格的10倍,兩家能源供應商因此倒閉。自10月1日起,英國的天然氣和電力市場監管機構Ofgem將提高公用事業向用戶收費的價格上限,1100萬戶家庭的電費將上漲。

在歐盟(EU),電力危機對消費者的影響已經造成了政治影響。

西班牙總理佩德羅·桑切斯宣布臨時減稅,幫助消費者渡過難關。一天之內西班牙電價就上漲了12.6%。法國政府正在考慮增加可以直接獲得燃油補貼的人數,希臘則啟動了1.5億歐元(1.77億美元)的能源轉型基金,以補償最近的電價上漲。

替代來源

現在的問題是能源價格飆升會持續多久,以及如何規劃能源轉型加以避免。

丹斯克大宗商品公司(Danske Commodities)的電力市場分析主管馬丁·尤爾指出,隨著煤炭逐步淘汰和能源消耗電氣化,為電力生產提供替代燃料來源以實現能源結構多樣化將越發重要。

歐盟委員會(European Commission)和英國政府一直在投資新技術,例如能源密集型電池和氫氣技術,目的就是可再生能源不可靠時,不必再啟用天然氣或煤炭。

與此同時,海上風力發電能力正在提高。Wood Mackenzie公司的數據顯示,海上風電場容量系數每年增長2%,具體意思是2006年平均每座風電場運行容量僅為總容量的30%,但現在隨著技術進步和安置改善,海上風電場運行效率更高。

但首先,風得重新吹起來。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

位于北海(North Sea)的海上風電場呈指數級增長,證明了歐洲國家共同努力在電網脫碳方面投入時間、精力和資金。

就在歐洲最需要能源的時候,北海的風停了,這迫使地區能源市場爭奪天然氣儲備,為家庭供暖和企業供電。

它造成的后果很昂貴。

能源轉型帶來的意外后果變成了電費飆升。可再生資源成本低且屬于無碳排放,歐洲能源市場對其依賴程度日益增高,然而這顯然不可靠,比如風如果停了怎么辦。

臨近冬季之際,隨著該地區從新冠疫情中走出,需要更多的能源來推動經濟復蘇,歐洲國家逐漸擱置了限制碳排放的配額,并且重新考慮燃煤電廠,以填補風能缺失造成的缺口。

如果說轉向碳排放能源還不夠苦澀,整個歐洲大陸的天然氣供應就更是陷入了地緣政治糾葛。俄羅斯不斷增加儲量,或許是為了提升歐洲對“北溪-2”(Nord Stream 2)天然氣管道的興趣,而且中國、日本和韓國對液化天然氣(LNG)的出價超過歐洲,來自俄羅斯的供應已經下降。

“可再生能源發電強勁增長顯然會影響電價和電力結構。”能源研究公司Rystad energy的天然氣和電力市場負責人卡洛斯·托雷斯·迪亞茲表示。

一片平靜

英國面臨的情況尤為嚴重,目前該國的能源總量中,風能僅占7%,與2020年風能平均占發電總量25%相比急劇下降。

英國的海上風電領域是能源轉換的成功案例,過去十年里輸出了24GW風力發電,足夠大幅削減排放量,而且可以為720萬個家庭供電。但隨著風力放緩,碳信用額度價格升至創紀錄高位,電力市場經歷了極端動蕩。

“我們提高可再生能源普及率的目標非常高,隨之而來的日益嚴重的問題是價格波動。”Wood Mackenzie公司的海上風電分析師芬利·克拉克說。

因此,燃氣和燃煤發電廠均已重新啟用,以填補空白。現在,天然氣發電占了英國發電量的一半以上,然而英國海上風力由補貼覆蓋,邊際成本接近零,但天然氣并不是。

就連碳排放量最大的能源煤炭,也已經重返舞臺。經歷兩個月創紀錄的無煤期后,現在英國能源結構中煤電僅占3%。面對上周的電力短缺,電力市場運營商國家電網(National Grid)要求法國電力集團(EDF)重啟位于諾丁漢郡的西伯頓A(West Burton A)煤電站。但英國關閉所有燃煤電廠的最后期限是2024年,未來可能無法如此選擇。

電價高企令人震驚

平靜無風再加上全球爭奪天然氣供應,導致了電力價格的飛漲。在過去一年里,歐洲的天然氣價格上漲了500%以上,創造了新的每日紀錄,而上漲幾乎不可避免地會轉嫁到消費者的身上。

英國9月的電價翻了一番,是一年前的七倍。9月14日,第二天的電力調度價格為每兆瓦時424.61英鎊(588美元),是2020年9月平均價格的10倍,兩家能源供應商因此倒閉。自10月1日起,英國的天然氣和電力市場監管機構Ofgem將提高公用事業向用戶收費的價格上限,1100萬戶家庭的電費將上漲。

在歐盟(EU),電力危機對消費者的影響已經造成了政治影響。

西班牙總理佩德羅·桑切斯宣布臨時減稅,幫助消費者渡過難關。一天之內西班牙電價就上漲了12.6%。法國政府正在考慮增加可以直接獲得燃油補貼的人數,希臘則啟動了1.5億歐元(1.77億美元)的能源轉型基金,以補償最近的電價上漲。

替代來源

現在的問題是能源價格飆升會持續多久,以及如何規劃能源轉型加以避免。

丹斯克大宗商品公司(Danske Commodities)的電力市場分析主管馬丁·尤爾指出,隨著煤炭逐步淘汰和能源消耗電氣化,為電力生產提供替代燃料來源以實現能源結構多樣化將越發重要。

歐盟委員會(European Commission)和英國政府一直在投資新技術,例如能源密集型電池和氫氣技術,目的就是可再生能源不可靠時,不必再啟用天然氣或煤炭。

與此同時,海上風力發電能力正在提高。Wood Mackenzie公司的數據顯示,海上風電場容量系數每年增長2%,具體意思是2006年平均每座風電場運行容量僅為總容量的30%,但現在隨著技術進步和安置改善,海上風電場運行效率更高。

但首先,風得重新吹起來。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

The exponential growth of offshore wind farms in the North Sea has been a testament to the combined efforts of European countries’ investing time, effort, and money in the decarbonization of their electricity grids.

But just as Europe needs energy the most, the wind in the North Sea has stopped blowing, forcing regional energy markets to scramble for gas reserves to heat homes and power businesses.

This has had expensive consequences.

As the European energy market grows increasingly reliant on a renewable energy source that is cheap to harness and carbon-emission free—but is clearly unreliable when the wind isn’t blowing—surging electricity bills are an unintended consequence of the energy transition.

Heading into winter at a time when more energy is already needed to fuel economic recovery as the region emerges from the pandemic, European countries are setting aside quotas meant to cap carbon emissions and rethinking the shutdown of coal plants in order to fill the gap left by the missing wind.

And if turning to carbon-emitting energy sources wasn’t a bitter enough pill, natural gas supply across the continent is tied up in a geopolitical tangle. Supply from Russia has dropped as Russia builds its reserves—and perhaps to increase interest in the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline—and China, Japan, and South Korea are outbidding Europe for liquefied natural gas (LNG).

“Definitely the strong growth in renewable power generation is affecting the prices and the power mix,” says Carlos Torres Diaz, head of gas and power markets at energy research firm Rystad Energy.

Dead calm

The situation is especially acute in the U.K., where wind is currently providing only 7% of the country’s energy makeup—a steep drop from the 25% it generated on average across 2020.

The U.K.’s offshore wind sector had been a success story of the energy transition, drastically cutting emissions by rolling out 24GW of wind power over the past decade—enough to power 7.2 million homes. But as wind slowed and the price of carbon credits rose to record highs, the electricity market has experienced extreme volatility.

“We have very steep targets for increased renewable energy penetration, and the growing problem alongside of that is this fluctuation in prices that we’re seeing,” says Finlay Clark, an offshore wind analyst from Wood Mackenzie.

As a result, gas- and coal-fired electricity plants have been brought online to fill the gap. Gas now makes up more than half of the electricity in the U.K., and while the U.K.’s offshore wind is covered by subsidies and operating at zero marginal cost, gas is not.

Even coal, the most carbon-emitting energy source, has returned to the stage; it now accounts for 3% of the British energy makeup after a record-breaking two coal-free months. Faced with the power crunch last week, the electricity market operator National Grid asked EDF to restart the West Burton A coal power station in Nottinghamshire. But with a looming deadline to close all coal plants in the U.K. by 2024, this may not be an option in the future.

Sticker shock

The mix of windless air and competition for the world’s gas supply has caused power prices to skyrocket—the price of natural gas in Europe is up more than 500% over the past year, setting fresh daily records—and that jump will almost inevitably be passed on to consumers.

In the U.K., electricity prices have doubled in the month of September and are seven times as high as those a year ago. Prices for power to be dispatched the next day were at £424.61 ($588) per mwh on September 14—10 times as high as the average price in September 2020—causing two energy suppliers to go out of business. Electricity bills will go up for 11 million households from Oct. 1 after Ofgem increased its price cap on how much utilities can charge customers.

In the EU, the consumer impact of the power crunch has already had political reverberations.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has announced a temporary tax cut to help out consumers in the country, which just saw a single-day 12.6% rise in its electricity prices. The French government is considering increasing the number of people who can qualify for direct subsidies for fuel payments, while Greece has launched a €150 million ($177 million) energy transition fund to compensate for the recent rise in electricity prices.

Alternative sources

The question now is how long spiking energy prices will last—and how to plan the energy transition to avoid them.

As coal is phased out, and electrification of energy consumption increases, it will be even more important to have alternative fuel sources for power production to diversify the energy mix, notes Martin Juhl, head of power markets analysis at Danske Commodities.

The European Commission and the U.K. government have been investing in the rollout of new technologies, like energy-dense batteries and hydrogen, so countries won’t have to turn to gas or coal at times when renewable energy is unreliable.

Meanwhile, offshore wind capacity is improving. Offshore wind has seen 2% growth in its capacity factor each year, according to Wood Mackenzie, meaning that a wind farm on average in 2006 would operate at only 30% of its capacity but now with better technology and better placement, offshore wind farms can operate at a much higher level.

But first the wind has to start blowing again.

最新:
  • 熱讀文章
  • 熱門視頻
活動
掃碼打開財富Plus App
丝瓜app官网地址_丝瓜app官网下载入口_丝瓜app官网下载安卓_丝瓜app官网下载安装io